Tories at War with Reform UK

Well, perhaps unsurprisingly Reform UKs record high levels of support in the national polls now rattling a few people in Westminster.

Before I get to that and what’s been said over the past few days, just allow me to thank the new members of the channel who support the channel by becoming a member. Down below I’ll put a link down below, thanks to Brian for becoming the newest member, Caroline one of those, no problem, Caroline for the shout. You can see the members badge there next to the names of the members is here on the channel now Carol another member voting Reform UK and Steve there speculating about the future of the EU after the next set of European elections.

But look at home, we’ve now got a situation where Reform UK hitting up to 16% in the national polls just five points behind the Tories now and Reform UK also now pledging and pushing for a referendum on Net Zero. As for the scandal of illegal migration from France to England on small boats well Rishi Sunak has talked a good game about stopping the boats. He’s completely failed to deliver.

Around 5,000 people already crossing this year almost a third higher than the same quarter last year, we’re up 43% in 2024. In terms of numbers and perhaps unsurprisingly then, voters very unhappy with what the government are not talking about or saying they might do but are actually delivering.

Tories Heading for Less Than 100 Seats

So you’ve got a situation now where the Tories could actually fall to below a 100 seats at the next election which clearly is spooking Conservatives into now rather than ignoring Reform UK lashing out, slamming the party. You’ve got Damien Green one of those claiming Reform UK is only focused on stoking division among Society. You’ve got Jonathan Gullis there saying that a vote for Reform UK gets Starmer and Labour it’s that simple, to which Tice responded that the toxic Tories are already Starmer socialists.

You even had the Conservative party chairman then Richard Holden describing Richard Tice as a threatening bully. Clearly things getting a bit feisty then and Richard Tice actually speaking to the Telegraph at the weekend saying he thinks it’s fair to say that full scale war has broken out between the Tories and Reform UK.

Tice claiming the Tories are going to end up with less than 100 seats and that’s part of his mission, that they’re not going to bully him and they’re not going to bully his candidates. Tice is following that up by saying that we’ve just witnessed a weekend of unprecedented coordinated attacks by sections of the media aligned to the Tory party against Reform UK. The thing is Tory MPs can attack Reform UK and Tice as much as they like, the fact is voters are very unhappy with what the government are actually delivering.

First Past the Post is a Challenge

You can see this new piece of research from Electoral Calculus that shows the absurd situation on the first pass of the post where Reform UK could get 12% and the Lib Dems could get 10% but that would give the Lib Dems 49 seats and Reform UK no seats.

However, you can see there in terms of the higher end of what could be achieved for the first time now you’re seeing Reform UK potentially at winning a solid number of seats under that, so the Greens under their high seat projection there would only win four seats but Reform UK, 22 seats if they can increase support and momentum further.

So, no surprise really there to see conservatives actually starting to acknowledge and attack Reform UK.

Let me know what you make of that in the comments below though please guys, who are you currently intending to vote for  and if you would like to support my channel do please become a member by seeing the link down below and of course as ever cheers for watching.