First YouGov Poll Since the July General Election

Reform UK continues it meteoric rise in opinion polls with the latest YouGov poll showing them just 1% behind Labour with 25% & 24% respectively. This follows a recent poll from FindOutNow which had Reform UK and Labour tied on 25% with the Tories trailing with 22%.

It is becoming clear where the momentum is in British politics and which parties are struggling to connect with the electorate.

Above 25% the first past the post electoral system starts to work in Reforms favour. At 28% Reform UK would become the largest single party in Westminster, but would need to form a coalition. Above 31% Reform UK would have in excess of 330 seats and would form a government.

In just seven months since the election as the Labour government collapses and the Tories are showing no signs of being able to restore the publics trust that they willingly squandered. The ‘broad church’ once so proudly boasted of is no longer functional. The right wing of the Conservative party is out of step with the one nation liberal wing that has dominated the Tories since John Majors days back in the 90’s.

There is a right wing vote and there is a liberal vote and not everyone in the Tory party seemingly understands why there once loved party is collapsing before their eyes.

Polling in the mid 20’s the Reform UK political map starts to look like this with wins across the country. Looking at this map it is easy to understand why many councils are looking to defer local elections for as long as possible!

The electorate have had enough of liberal Tories and increasingly having been reminded of the joys of socialism are looking for an alternative solution to the nations problems.

Reform UK Surge in the Polls

Where next for Reform UK? What can we expect to see in the coming month and indeed years to come ahead of the next general election? Firstly the May 2025 local elections, will confirm the popularity of Reform UK. It is likely that Reform UK will pick up vast swathes of seats acrosss the country. Frustratingly in one of the regions where they expected to do very well, East Anglia, many of the elections are being cancelled. Not only is this undemocratic, but it is also limiting the parties progress in what would be a very strong area for them.

In the coming months there will be parliamentary by-elections, one in Hertsmere, Hertfordshire as and when Oliver Dowden receives a peerage in Sunaks resignation honours. Reform UK are expecting to do well in Hertsmere and there is already a ground campaign underway to see the PPC Darren Selkus elected to Westminster. You can support his campaign here: https://donate.reformparty.uk/hertsmere

Reform UK Membership still Climbing

Recently passing the 180,000 paid members it won’t be too long at the current rate before Reform UK pass the 200,000 members level. Where it will top out who knows?

The electorate have had enough, enough of expensive energy, enough of poor public services, high taxes, open borders, of being gaslit by those we elected.

Change is coming, it can’t come soon enough, but it is coming and forces are gathering to attempt to halt that positive change.

Some media elements are trying to push divisions within Reform, to denigrate Nigel Farage and split the only party that has any unity at all. There will be challenges, spanners thrown in the works to attempt to split and divide Reform UK support. That is only natural and only to be expected. The opposition cannot offer anything positive as an alternative to Reform, so instead they will do the only thing they know how to do, they will attempt to divide, to creat a split where there is none.

In any party there will always be small factions committed to disharmony, thinking that it should be them, that it should be there way and it is unfortunate that not everyone is a team player. There will be others who think they can create their own party and rival Reform in the polls. Several are in the process of attempting to do so. They will discover just how difficult it is to achieve what Reform UK have achieved so far.

The hates will continue to hate, the dividers will continue to try to divide, but Reform will be resolute. Nothing will stop the onward march towards 2029.

By January 2026 how many members will Reform have? 250,000, 300,000, 400,000?

How many MPs will they have? 10? 15?

How many councillors will Reform have?